Prediction of survival and tumor recurrence in patients undergoing surgery for pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms. Issue 2 (28th December 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kaltenborn, Alexander; Matzke, Svenja; Kleine, Moritz; Krech, Till; Ramackers, Wolf; Vondran, Florian W. R.; Klempnauer, Jürgen; Bektas, Hüseyin; Schrem, Harald
• Is Part Of: Journal of surgical oncology. Volume 113:Issue 2(2016)
• Page Start: 194
• Page End: 202
• Publication Date: 2015-12-28
• Subjects: thrombocytes -- metastasis -- prognosis -- multivariate analysis -- pancreas -- neuroendocrine tumors; Cancer -- Surgery -- Periodicals; Neoplasms -- Periodicals; 616
• DOI: 10.1002/jso.24116
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-4790

Abstract

Abstract : Background: This study strives to define prognostic models for outcome after surgery for malignant pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors. Methods: Forty‐one patients were included. Prognostic models for mortality and disease recurrence were developed with multivariate binary logistic regression. Results: The proposed prognostic model for tumor recurrence risk after surgery in percentage (AUROC = 0.774, 95%CI = 0.611–0.937) is: Risk in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = −4.360 + (0.015 × tumor diameter in cm) + (0.010 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (1.077 × distant metastases, if yes = 1; if no = 0) + (−0.026 × Ki‐67‐positive cells in %) + (−1.086 × upper abdominal pain, if yes = 1; if no = 0). The proposed prognostic model for observed 3‐year survival probability after surgery in % (AUROC = 0.932, 95%CI = 0.857–0.999) is: Survival probability in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = −12.492 + (0.054 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (0.112 × minimal distance of the resection margin from the tumor in mm) + (−1.574 × number of positive lymph nodes) + (2.292 × histological tumor infiltration, if yes = 1; if no = 0) Conclusions: The platelet count was identified as a relevant risk factor. Proposed prognostic models with good model‐fit display properties that indicate potential clinical usefulness. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;113:194–202 . © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.