Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus: Validation of a clinical decision making tool in breast cancer in an independent series. (15th January 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Green, Andrew R; Soria, Daniele; Stephen, Jacqueline; Powe, Desmond G; Nolan, Christopher C; Kunkler, Ian; Thomas, Jeremy; Kerr, Gillian R; Jack, Wilma; Cameron, David; Piper, Tammy; Ball, Graham R; Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Rakha, Emad A; Bartlett, John MS; Ellis, Ian O
• Is Part Of: Journal of pathology. Volume 2:Number 1(2016)
• Page Start: 32
• Page End: 40
• Publication Date: 2016-01-15
• Subjects: breast cancer -- classification -- prognostic index -- molecular -- clinical -- outcome; Pathology -- Periodicals; Diagnosis, Laboratory -- Periodicals; 616.07
• DOI: 10.1002/cjp2.32
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2056-4538

Abstract

Abstract: The Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus (NPI+) is a clinical decision making tool in breast cancer (BC) that aims to provide improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to validate the NPI+ in an independent series of BC. Eight hundred and eighty five primary early stage BC cases from Edinburgh were semi‐quantitatively assessed for 10 biomarkers [Estrogen Receptor (ER), Progesterone Receptor (PgR), cytokeratin (CK) 5/6, CK7/8, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), HER2, HER3, HER4, p53, and Mucin 1] using immunohistochemistry and classified into biological classes by fuzzy logic‐derived algorithms previously developed in the Nottingham series. Subsequently, NPI+ Prognostic Groups (PGs) were assigned for each class using bespoke NPI‐like formulae, previously developed in each NPI+ biological class of the Nottingham series, utilising clinicopathological parameters: number of positive nodes, pathological tumour size, stage, tubule formation, nuclear pleomorphism and mitotic counts. Biological classes and PGs were compared between the Edinburgh and Nottingham series using Cramer's V and their role in patient outcome prediction using Kaplan–Meier curves and tested using Log Rank. The NPI+ biomarker panel classified the Edinburgh series into seven biological classes similar to the Nottingham series ( p > 0.01). The biological classes were significantly associated with patient outcome ( p < 0.001). PGs were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in Luminal A, Basal p53 altered, HER2+/ER+ tumours ( p > 0.01). The good PGs were similarly validated in Luminal B, Basal p53 normal, HER2+/ER− tumours and the poor PG in the Luminal N class ( p > 0.01). Due to small patient numbers assigned to the remaining PGs, Luminal N, Luminal B, Basal p53 normal and HER2+/ER− classes could not be validated. This study demonstrates the reproducibility of NPI+ and confirmed its prognostic value in an independent cohort of primary BC. Further validation in large randomised controlled trial material is warranted.