Are there new findings in the search for ULF magnetic precursors to earthquakes?. Issue 12 (8th December 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Masci, F.; Thomas, J. N.
• Is Part Of: Journal of geophysical research. Volume 120:Issue 12(2015:Dec.)
• Page Start: 10, 289
• Page End: 10, 304
• Publication Date: 2015-12-08
• Subjects: earthquake precursors -- geomagnetic field -- ULF -- short‐term earthquake prediction; Magnetospheric physics -- Periodicals; Space environment -- Periodicals; Cosmic physics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Atmospheres -- Periodicals; Heliosphere (Astrophysics) -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 523.01
• DOI: 10.1002/2015JA021336
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2169-9380

Abstract

Abstract: Moore (1964) in a letter published in Nature reported disturbances in geomagnetic field data prior to the 27 March 1964 Alaska earthquake. After the publication of this report, many papers have shown magnetic changes preceding earthquakes. However, a causal relationship between preearthquake magnetic changes and impending earthquakes has never been demonstrated. As a consequence, after 50 years, magnetic disturbances in the geomagnetic field are still candidate precursory phenomena. Some researchers consider the investigation of ultra low frequency (ULF: 0.001–10 Hz) magnetic data the correct approach for identifying precursory signatures of earthquakes. Other researchers, instead, have recently reviewed many published ULF magnetic changes that preceded earthquakes and have shown that these are not actual precursors. The recent studies by Currie and Waters (2014) and Han et al. (2014) aim to provide relevant new findings in the search for ULF magnetic precursory signals. However, in order to contribute to science, alleged precursors must be shown to be valid and reproducible by objective testing. Here we will briefly discuss the state of the art in the search for ULF magnetic precursors, paying special attention to the recent findings of Currie and Waters (2014) and Han et al. (2014). We do not see in these two reports significant evidence that may support the observation of precursory signatures of earthquakes in ULF magnetic records. Key Points: We discuss the state of the art in the search for ULF earthquake precursors We discuss the reliability of the polarization ratio as indicator of precursors We discuss SEA analysis in the context of short‐term earthquake prediction