Forecasts impacts on sanitary risk during a crisis: a case study. Issue 2 (5th August 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Thiel, Daniel; Le Hoa Vo, Thi; Hovelaque, Vincent
• Is Part Of: International journal of logistics management. Volume 25:Issue 2(2014)
• Page Start: 358
• Page End: 378
• Publication Date: 2014-08-05
• Subjects: Business logistics -- Management -- Periodicals; Physical distribution of goods -- Management -- Periodicals; Web sites; 658.5
• DOI: 10.1108/IJLM-04-2012-0028
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0957-4093

Abstract

<abstract> <title> <x content-type="archive" xml:space="preserve">Abstract</x> </title> <sec> <title content-type="abstract-heading">Purpose</title> <p> – During a crisis situation, a poultry supply chain is faced with high variations on fresh chicken meat demand and has therefore to simultaneously manage excessive shelf-life stocks (in case of falling demand) and external purchases due to inventory shortages. In this case, the production plan is often established according to non-accurate sale forecasts which require ongoing adjustment. The paper aims to discuss these issues. </p> </sec> <sec> <title content-type="abstract-heading">Design/methodology/approach</title> <p> – By using system dynamics, the paper developed a model of the French poultry supply chain during a given avian influenza crisis period. The authors compared exponential smoothing forecasting method to a word-of-mouth diffusion model which makes sense in a sanitary crisis context. </p> </sec> <sec> <title content-type="abstract-heading">Findings</title> <p> – An interesting result shows a complex relationship between the sanitary risk (which increases according to the slaughtered chicken's volume and storage time) and the additional external purchases (in case of low production generated by an insufficient forecasting launched 40 days before customer orders). </p> </sec> <sec> <title content-type="abstract-heading">Research limitations/implications</title> <p> – Additional costs which vary over time are required for further assumptions testing. </p> </sec> <sec> <title content-type="abstract-heading">Practical implications</title> <p> – The paper proposes to use a forecasting model which is not currently used by the professionals during a sanitary crisis period. This model is able to simulate an internal dissemination of a call for boycott of meat products (cf. negative word-of-mouth spread). </p> </sec> <sec> <title content-type="abstract-heading">Originality/value</title> <p> – The problem is how to maintain a less risky but significant buffer size to respond to a supply chain coping with both changes in customers' demand and instability in production capacity.</p> </sec> </abstract>