Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of stage IV colorectal cancer after curative resection: A multicenter retrospective study. Issue 4 (April 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kawai, K.; Ishihara, S.; Yamaguchi, H.; Sunami, E.; Kitayama, J.; Miyata, H.; Sugihara, K.; Watanabe, T.
• Is Part Of: European journal of surgical oncology. Volume 41:Issue 4(2015:Apr.)
• Page Start: 457
• Page End: 465
• Publication Date: 2015-04
• Subjects: Oncology -- Periodicals; Cancer -- Surgery -- Periodicals; Medical Oncology -- Periodicals; Neoplasms -- surgery -- Periodicals; Cancer -- Chirurgie -- Périodiques; Cancérologie -- Périodiques; Oncologie; Chirurgie (geneeskunde); Electronic journals; Electronic journals -- Sciences; Electronic journals -- Medicine; Electronic journals; 616.994059005
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejso.2015.01.026
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0748-7983

Abstract

<abstract xml:lang="en" abstract-type="author" id="abs0010"> <title id="sectitle0010">Abstract</title> <sec> <title id="sectitle0015">Purpose</title> <p id="abspara0010">Although stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) encompasses a wide variety of clinical conditions with diverse prognoses, no statistical model for predicting the postoperative prognosis of stage IV CRC has been established. Thus, we here aimed to construct a predictive model for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) after curative surgery for stage IV CRC using nomograms.</p> </sec> <sec> <title id="sectitle0020">Methods</title> <p id="abspara0015">The study included 1133 stage IV CRC patients who underwent curative surgical resection in 19 institutions. Patients were divided into derivation (n = 586) and validation (n = 547) groups. Nomograms to predict the 1- and 3-year DFS rates and the 3- and 5-year OS rates were constructed using the derivation set. Calibration plots were constructed, and concordance indices (c-indices) were calculated. The predictive utility of the nomogram was validated in the validation set.</p> </sec> <sec> <title id="sectitle0025">Results</title> <p id="abspara0020">The postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, depth of tumor invasion (T factor), lymph node metastasis (N factor), and number of metastatic organs were adopted as variables for the DFS-predicting nomogram, whereas the postoperative CEA level, T factor, N factor, and peritoneal dissemination were adopted for the nomogram to predict OS. The nomograms showed moderate calibration, with c-indices of 0.629 and 0.640 in the derivation set and 0.604 and 0.637 in the validation set for DFS and OS, respectively.</p> </sec> <sec> <title id="sectitle0030">Conclusions</title> <p id="abspara0025">The nomograms developed were capable of estimating the probability of DFS and OS on the basis of only 4 variables, and may represent useful tools for postoperative surveillance of stage IV CRC patients in routine practice.</p> </sec> </abstract>