A heuristic evaluation of long‐term global sea level acceleration. Issue 10 (29th May 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Spada, Giorgio; Olivieri, Marco; Galassi, Gaia
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 42:Issue 10(2015:May)
• Page Start: 4166
• Page End: 4172
• Publication Date: 2015-05-29
• Subjects: Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063837
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="main" id="grl52950-abs-0001"> <title>Abstract</title> <p id="grl52950-para-0001">In view of the scientific and social implications, the global mean sea level rise (GMSLR) and its possible causes and future trend have been a challenge for so long. For the twentieth century, reconstructions generally indicate a rate of GMSLR in the range of 1.5 to 2.0 mm yr⁻¹. However, the existence of nonlinear trends is still debated, and current estimates of the secular acceleration are subject to ample uncertainties. Here we use various GMSLR estimates published on scholarly journals since the 1940s for a heuristic assessment of global sea level acceleration. The approach, alternative to sea level reconstructions, is based on simple statistical methods and exploits the principles of meta‐analysis. Our results point to a global sea level acceleration of 0.54 ± 0.27 mm/yr/century (1<italic>σ</italic>) between 1898 and 1975. This supports independent estimates and suggests that a sea level acceleration since the early 1900s is more likely than currently believed.</p> </abstract>