Modelling the current and future dry‐season distribution of the edible stinkbug Encosternum delegorguei in sub‐Saharan Africa. Issue 1 (27th May 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Dzerefos, C.M.; Erasmus, B.F.N.; Witkowski, E.T.F.; Guo, D.
• Is Part Of: Entomologia experimentalis et applicata. Volume 156:Issue 1(2015:Jul.)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 13
• Publication Date: 2015-05-27
• Subjects: Entomology -- Periodicals; 595.7
• DOI: 10.1111/eea.12309
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0013-8703

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="main" id="eea12309-abs-0001"> <title>Abstract</title> <p>Rural communities in South Africa, Malawi, and Zimbabwe annually harvest from winter aggregations of the edible stinkbug <italic>Encosternum</italic> (= <italic>Haplosterna</italic>) <italic>delegorguei </italic>Spinola (Hemiptera: Tessaratomidae). Using a regional maximum entropy modelling method (MAXENT) for winter field records of <italic>E. delegorguei</italic>, current and future climate scenarios were identified. Winter precipitation and to a lesser degree summer precipitation and winter temperature were the climatic variables found to limit the regional distribution of <italic>E. delegorguei</italic>. The receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC) yielded an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.995, indicating a reliable model, although interpretations must consider the influence of elevation for this insect. A testable hypothesis regarding future distribution of <italic>E. delegorguei</italic> in the face of climate change has been formulated for its winter range. Predator‐prey relationships and food source also influence the occurrence of <italic>E. delegorguei</italic> and may override the influence of climate. The current distribution modelled identifies potential new sites in areas of similar climate which may be unknown to harvesters. Areas for mini‐livestock pilot studies provide opportunities for extending commercial potential and ensuring a sustainable, valuable food source during periods of food scarcity.</p> </abstract>