Economic Discontent as a Mobilizer: Unemployment and Voter Turnout. (22nd July 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Burden, Barry C.; Wichowsky, Amber
• Is Part Of: Journal of politics. Volume 76:Number 4(2014:Oct.)
• Page Start: 887
• Page End: 898
• Publication Date: 2014-07-22
• Subjects: Political science -- Periodicals; 320.05
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022381614000437
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-3816

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="normal"> <title> <x content-type="archive" xml:space="preserve">Abstract</x> </title> <p> <italic>Published scholarship argues that a poor economy depresses voter participation in the United States. This troubling result suggests that incumbents are "underpenalized" for bad economic performance. We challenge this conclusion theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, we argue that a worsening economy has a disruptive effect that prods worried citizens to voice concern and seek remedies. Empirically, we analyze county-level data and find that, contrary to earlier studies, higher unemployment rates in fact stimulate more people to vote. We show that the effect is not the result of heightened electoral competition when unemployment is high. The relationship displays a partisan asymmetry in which Republican candidates are especially harmed by higher unemployment. The results also indicate that studies of economic voting need to consider the role of turnout in connecting economic performance to the incumbent's vote share.</italic> </p> </abstract>