Expectations in Mass Elections: Back to the Future?1. (18th November 2013)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Guinjoan, Marc; Simón, Pablo; Bermúdez, Sandra; Lago, Ignacio
• Is Part Of: Social science quarterly. Volume 95:Number 5(2014)
• Page Start: 1346
• Page End: 1359
• Publication Date: 2013-11-18
• Subjects: Political science -- Periodicals; Social sciences -- Periodicals; 300
• DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12066
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0038-4941

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="main"> <title> <x xml:space="preserve">Abstract</x> </title> <sec id="ssqu12066-sec-0010" sec-type="section"> <title>Objectives</title> <p>This article examines whether voters look to the past or the future when forming their perceptions of the parties' chances of winning.</p> </sec> <sec id="ssqu12066-sec-0020" sec-type="section"> <title>Methods</title> <p>We use OLS regression models to analyze panel survey data from the districts where the incumbent was defeated in the 2011 provincial election in Ontario (Canada).</p> </sec> <sec id="ssqu12066-sec-0030" sec-type="section"> <title>Results</title> <p>We find that voters' expectations in the districts are mainly affected by the results of the upcoming election and not by the outcome of the previous election. We also find that expectations are influenced by the phenomenon of wishful thinking.</p> </sec> <sec id="ssqu12066-sec-0040" sec-type="section"> <title>Conclusions</title> <p>This study sheds light on how voters form their perceptions of the parties' chances of winning.</p> </sec> </abstract>