A simple numerical tool to infer whether a species is extinct. Issue 8 (23rd July 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lee, Tamsin E.; Isaac, Nick
• Is Part Of: Methods in ecology and evolution. Volume 5:Issue 8(2014:Aug.)
• Page Start: 791
• Page End: 796
• Publication Date: 2014-07-23
• Subjects: Ecology -- Periodicals; Evolution -- Periodicals; 577
• DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.12227
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2041-210X

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="main" id="mee312227-abs-0001"> <title>Summary</title> <p> <list id="mee312227-list-0001" list-type="order"> <list-item> <p>Including uncertain sightings when inferring extinction of a species is relatively new and has proven to be significant. However, including uncertain sightings leads to non‐trivial mathematical problems which are inaccessible to many ecologists.</p> </list-item> <list-item> <p>I use the Pohnpei Mountain Starling <italic>Aplonis pelzelni</italic> to describe an Excel spreadsheet which infers extinction from a sighting record. The spreadsheet implements a Bayesian model which includes uncertainty around the prior, uncertain sightings and survey effort.</p> </list-item> <list-item> <p>Survey effort has not been included in extinction models before, but clearly plays a significant role in extinction estimates, which the Pohnpei Mountain Starling example demonstrates.</p> </list-item> <list-item> <p>The spreadsheet (included as supplementary material) is user‐friendly, fast and accessible on Windows.</p> </list-item> </list> </p> </abstract>