World trade: Modest recovery continues1. (July 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Is Part Of: Economic outlook. Volume 38:Number 3(2014)
• Page Start: 13
• Page End: 17
• Publication Date: 2014-07
• Subjects: Economic forecasting -- Great Britain -- Periodicals; Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- 1945-1964 -- Periodicals; 330.94100112
• DOI: 10.1111/1468-0319.12103
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0140-489X

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="main"> <title> <x xml:space="preserve">Abstract</x> </title> <p>The latest indicators suggest a modest recovery in world trade. The apparent upswing in US import demand over the last couple of months is a notable positive signal for the global economy, and the constraining impact on world trade of the Eurozone recession of 2011–13 is also easing. The pace of world trade growth is, however, still relatively slow; our forecasts suggest world trade growth will only recover to its long‐term average level of just under 6% per year by end‐2015. Trade growth in key emerging markets also remains soft, although some indicators from Asia suggest an improving picture. One reason for the relatively weak growth in world trade may be a restructuring of global supply chains, reducing the growth in trade in intermediate goods. If so, this is not necessarily bad news for the global economy but may have distributional consequences, for example bearing down on growth in countries that have specialised in providing such goods including some emergers.</p> </abstract>