A model to predict antiviral treatment in HBeAg negative chronic hepatitis B with alanine aminotransferase ≤2 upper limit of normal. (23rd October 2013)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gao, Shuai; Fan, Yu‐Chen; Zhao, Jing; Sun, Feng‐Kai; Han, Jie; Zhao, Ze‐Hua; Wang, Kai
• Is Part Of: Liver international. Volume 34:Number 7(2014:Sep.)
• Page Start: e229
• Page End: e237
• Publication Date: 2013-10-23
• Subjects: Liver -- Periodicals; Liver -- Diseases -- Periodicals; 616.362
• DOI: 10.1111/liv.12344
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1478-3223

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="main" id="liv12344-abs-0001"> <title>Abstract</title> <sec id="liv12344-sec-0001" sec-type="section"> <title>Background & Aims</title> <p>Liver histological assessment is essential for predicting antiviral therapy in HBeAg negative chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) ≤2 upper limit of normal (ULN). The aim was to establish a model to predict antiviral treatment for those patients without liver biopsy.</p> </sec> <sec id="liv12344-sec-0002" sec-type="section"> <title>Methods</title> <p>Three hundred and one consecutive treatment naive HBeAg negative CHB patients with HBV DNA ≥2000 IU/ml and ALT ≤2 ULN were retrospectively enrolled, among which 158 patients were for the training set and 143 for validation set. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed in the training set and validated in the validation set.</p> </sec> <sec id="liv12344-sec-0003" sec-type="section"> <title>Results</title> <p>Our model identified four independent factors for the timing of treatment: Age (OR 1.050, 95%CI 1.004–1.098), Ln(aspartate aminotransferase) (OR 17.425, 95%CI 5.394–56.292), Log<sub>10</sub> [HBV DNA] (OR 0.704, 95%CI 0.514–0.963) and platelet (OR 0.980, 95%CI 0.970–0.990). It showed 94% sensitivity, 88% negative predictive value (NPV) in the training set and 93% sensitivity, 85% NPV in the validation set using the low cut‐off point of 5.16. Meanwhile, it showed 92% specificity, 88% positive predictive value (PPV) in the training set and 94% specificity, 92% PPV in the validation set using the high cut‐off point of 7.26. It could predict treatment for 179 of 301(59%) patients without biopsy.</p> </sec> <sec id="liv12344-sec-0004" sec-type="section"> <title>Conclusions</title> <p>We established a model to predict antiviral therapy in HBeAg negative CHB patients with ALT ≤2 ULN. Antiviral treatment should be initiated if the model value >7.26 and not if its value ≤5.16. Liver biopsy is needed only when its value between the two points.</p> </sec> </abstract>