A Decision Support Tool to Compare Waterborne and Foodborne Infection and/or Illness Risks Associated with Climate Change. Issue 12 (19th June 2013)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Schijven, Jack; Bouwknegt, Martijn; de, Ana Maria; Rutjes, Saskia; Sudre, Bertrand; Suk, Jonathan E.; Semenza, Jan C.
• Is Part Of: Risk analysis. Volume 33:Issue 12(2013)
• Page Start: 2154
• Page End: 2167
• Publication Date: 2013-06-19
• Subjects: Technology -- Risk assessment -- Periodicals; 658.403
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.12077
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0272-4332

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="main"> <title> <x xml:space="preserve">Abstract</x> </title> <p>Climate change may impact waterborne and foodborne infectious disease, but to what extent is uncertain. Estimating climate‐change‐associated relative infection risks from exposure to viruses, bacteria, or parasites in water or food is critical for guiding adaptation measures. We present a computational tool for strategic decision making that describes the behavior of pathogens using location‐specific input data under current and projected climate conditions. Pathogen‐pathway combinations are available for exposure to norovirus, <italic>Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium</italic>, and noncholera <italic>Vibrio</italic> species via drinking water, bathing water, oysters, or chicken fillets. Infection risk outcomes generated by the tool under current climate conditions correspond with those published in the literature. The tool demonstrates that increasing temperatures lead to increasing risks for infection with <italic>Campylobacter</italic> from consuming raw/undercooked chicken fillet and for <italic>Vibrio</italic> from water exposure. Increasing frequencies of drought generally lead to an elevated infection risk of exposure to persistent pathogens such as norovirus and <italic>Cryptosporidium</italic>, but decreasing risk of exposure to rapidly inactivating pathogens, like <italic>Campylobacter</italic>. The opposite is the case with increasing annual precipitation; an upsurge of heavy rainfall events leads to more peaks in infection risks in all cases. The interdisciplinary tool presented here can be used to guide climate change adaptation strategies focused on infectious diseases.</p> </abstract>