Deriving age‐specific incidence from prevalence with an ordinary differential equation. (4th October 2012)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Brinks, Ralph; Landwehr, Sandra; Icks, Andrea; Koch, Michael; Giani, Guido
• Is Part Of: Statistics in medicine. Volume 32:Number 12(2013)
• Page Start: 2070
• Page End: 2078
• Publication Date: 2012-10-04
• Subjects: Medical statistics -- Periodicals; Statistique médicale -- Périodiques; Statistiques médicales -- Périodiques; 610.727
• DOI: 10.1002/sim.5651
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0277-6715

Abstract

<abstract abstract-type="main" id="sim5651-abs-0001"> <title> <x xml:space="preserve">Abstract</x> </title> <p id="sim5651-para-0001">This article describes new relationships between the age‐specific incidence of, the prevalence of and mortality from a chronic disease. We express these relationships in terms of an ordinary differential equation and form the methodological basis for a novel approach to estimating incidences from age‐specific prevalence data. We examine practical aspects of the relationships and a comparison with a known stochastic method in a simulation study. Finally, we apply the novel method to a data set of renal replacement therapy recorded from patients with chronic kidney failure in a region of Germany with approximately 310, 000 inhabitants from 2002 to 2010. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.</p> </abstract>