Intermittent demand forecasting : context, methods and applications /: context, methods and applications. (2021)

• Record Type: Book
• Further Information: Note: John Boylan, Aris Syntetos.
• Authors: Boylan, John (John E.); Syntetos, A. A
• Contents: Preface xix Glossary xxi About the Companion Website xxiii 1 Economic and Environmental Context 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Economic and Environmental Benefits 3 1.2.1 After-sales Industry 3 1.2.2 Defence Sector 4 1.2.3 Economic Benefits 5 1.2.4 Environmental Benefits 5 1.2.5 Summary 6 1.3 Intermittent Demand Forecasting Software 6 1.3.1 Early Forecasting Software 6 1.3.2 Developments in Forecasting Software 6 1.3.3 Open Source Software 7 1.3.4 Summary 7 1.4 About this Book 7 1.4.1 Optimality and Robustness 7 1.4.2 Business Context 8 1.4.3 Structure of the Book 9 1.4.4 Current and Future Applications 10 1.4.5 Summary 10 1.5 Chapter Summary 11 Technical Note 11 2 Inventory Management and Forecasting 13 2.1 Introduction 13 2.2 Scheduling and Forecasting 13 2.2.1 Material Requirements Planning (MRP) 13 2.2.2 Dependent and Independent Demand Items 14 2.2.3 Make to Stock 15 2.2.4 Summary 15 2.3 Should an Item Be Stocked at All? 15 2.3.1 Stock/Non-Stock Decision Rules 16 2.3.2 Historical or Forecasted Demand? 18 2.3.3 Summary 18 2.4 Inventory Control Requirements 19 2.4.1 How Should Stock Records be Maintained? 19 2.4.2 When are Forecasts Required for Stocking Decisions? 22 2.4.3 Summary 24 2.5 Overview of Stock Rules 25 2.5.1 Continuous Review Systems 25 2.5.2 Periodic Review Systems 26 2.5.3 Periodic Review Policies 28 2.5.4 Variations of the (R, S ) Periodic Policy 29 2.5.5 Summary 30 2.6 Chapter Summary 30 Technical Notes 31 3 Service Level Measures 33 3.1 Introduction 33 3.2 Judgemental Ordering 34 3.2.1 Rules of Thumb for the Order-Up-To Level 34 3.2.2 Judgemental Adjustment of Orders 34 3.2.3 Summary 35 3.3 Aggregate Financial and Service Targets 35 3.3.1 Aggregate Financial Targets 36 3.3.2 Service Level Measures 36 3.3.3 Relationships Between Service Level Measures 38 3.3.4 Summary 39 3.4 Service Measures at SKU Level 39 3.4.1 Cost Factors 39 3.4.2 Understanding of Service Level Measures 40 3.4.3 Potential Service Level Measures 40 3.4.4 Choice of Service Level Measure 41 3.4.5 Summary 42 3.5 Calculating Cycle Service Levels 42 3.5.1 Distribution of Demand Over One Time Period 43 3.5.2 Cycle Service Levels Based on All Cycles 44 3.5.3 Cycle Service Levels Based on Cycles with Demand 45 3.5.4 Summary 47 3.6 Calculating Fill Rates 48 3.6.1 Unit Fill Rates 48 3.6.2 Fill Rates: Standard Formula 49 3.6.3 Fill Rates: Sobel’s Formula 51 3.6.4 Summary 53 3.7 Setting Service Level Targets 53 3.7.1 Responsibility for Target Setting 53 3.7.2 Trade-off Between Service and Cost 54 3.7.3 Setting SKU Level Service Targets 55 3.7.4 Summary 56 3.8 Chapter Summary 56 Technical Note 57 4 Demand Distributions 59 4.1 Introduction 59 4.2 Estimation of Demand Distributions 60 4.2.1 Empirical Demand Distributions 60 4.2.2 Fitted Demand Distributions 62 4.2.3 Summary 64 4.3 Criteria for Demand Distributions 64 4.3.1 Empirical Evidence for Goodness of Fit 64 4.3.2 Further Criteria 64 4.3.3 Summary 65 4.4 Poisson Distribution 65 4.4.1 Shape of the Poisson Distribution 66 4.4.2 Summary 67 4.5 Poisson Demand Distribution 67 4.5.1 Poisson: A Priori Grounds 67 4.5.2 Poisson: Ease of Calculation 67 4.5.3 Poisson: Flexibility 68 4.5.4 Poisson: Goodness of Fit 69 4.5.5 Testing for Goodness of Fit 70 4.5.6 Summary 72 4.6 Incidence and Occurrence 72 4.6.1 Demand Incidence 72 4.6.2 Demand Occurrence 73 4.6.3 Summary 74 4.7 Poisson Demand Incidence Distribution 75 4.7.1 A Priori Grounds 75 4.7.2 Ease of Calculation 75 4.7.3 Flexibility 76 4.7.4 Goodness of Fit 76 4.7.5 Summary 79 4.8 Bernoulli Demand Occurrence Distribution 79 4.8.1 Bernoulli Distribution: A Priori Grounds 79 4.8.2 Bernoulli Distribution: Ease of Calculation 80 4.8.3 Bernoulli Distribution: Flexibility 81 4.8.4 Bernoulli Distribution: Goodness of Fit 81 4.8.5 Summary 82 4.9 Chapter Summary 82 Technical Notes 83 5 Compound Demand Distributions 87 5.1 Introduction 87 5.2 Compound Poisson Distributions 88 5.2.1 Compound Poisson: A Priori Grounds 89 5.2.2 Compound Poisson: Flexibility 89 5.2.3 Summary 89 5.3 Stuttering Poisson Distribution 90 5.3.1 Stuttering Poisson: A Priori Grounds 91 5.3.2 Stuttering Poisson: Ease of Calculation 91 5.3.3 Stuttering Poisson: Flexibility 93 5.3.4 Stuttering Poisson: Goodness of Fit for Demand Sizes 93 5.3.5 Summary 95 5.4 Negative Binomial Distribution 96 5.4.1 Negative Binomial: A Priori Grounds 96 5.4.2 Negative Binomial: Ease of Calculation 96 5.4.3 Negative Binomial: Flexibility 97 5.4.4 Negative Binomial: Goodness of Fit 98 5.4.5 Summary 99 5.5 Compound Bernoulli Distributions 100 5.5.1 Compound Bernoulli: A Priori Grounds 100 5.5.2 Compound B
• Edition: 1st
• Publisher Details: Hoboken : John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Publication Date: 2021
• Extent: 1 online resource
• Subjects: 658.7870112; Inventory control -- Mathematical models; Inventory control -- Forecasting
• Languages: English
• ISBNs: 9781119135302; 9781119135296
• Related ISBNs: 9781119976080
• Notes: Note: Description based on CIP data; resource not viewed.
• Access Rights: Legal Deposit; Only available on premises controlled by the deposit library and to one user at any one time; The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK).
• Access Usage: Restricted: Printing from this resource is governed by The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK) and UK copyright law currently in force.