Operational flood forecasting, warning and response for multi-scale flood risks in developing cities. (2020)

• Record Type: Book
• Further Information: Note: María Carolina Rogelis.
• Authors: Rogelis, María Carolina
• Contents: 1 Introduction ; 1.1 Background; 1.2 Scope of the thesis; 1.3 Outline of the thesis 2 Regional debris flow susceptibility analysis in mountainous peri-urban areas through morphometric and land cover indicators ; 2.1 Introduction; 2.2 Methods and Data; 2.2.1 Study Area; 2.2.2 Methodology; 2.2.2.1 Development of the morphometric indicator; 2.2.2.2 Development of the land cover indicator; 2.2.2.3 Development of a composite susceptibility index; 2.3 Results; 2.3.1 Estimation of the morphometric indicator for the study area; 2.3.1.1 Morphometric indicator model; 2.3.1.2 Assessment of appropriateness of the morphometric indicator; 2.3.2 Land cover indicator; 2.3.3 Combination of indicators to obtain a final susceptibility index; 2.4 Discussion; 2.4.1 Morphometric indicator; 2.4.2 Debris flow propagation; 2.4.3 Land cover indicator, composite susceptibility index and comparison of results; 2.5 Conclusions 3 Regional prioritisation of flood risk in mountainous areas; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 Conceptualization of Vulnerability; 3.3 Methods and Data; 3.3.1 Study Area; 3.3.2 Methodology; 3.3.2.1 Delineation of exposure areas; 3.3.2.2 Choice of indicators and principal component analysis for vulnerability assessment; 3.3.2.3 Sensitivity of the vulnerability indicator; 3.3.2.4 Categories of recorded damage in the study area; 3.3.2.5 Prioritization of watersheds; 3.4 Results; 3.4.1 Exposure Areas; 3.4.2 Socio-economic fragility indicators; 3.4.3 Lack of Resilience and coping capacity indicators; 3.4.4 Physical exposure indicators; 3.4.5 Vulnerability indicator; 3.4.6 Prioritization of watersheds according to the qualitative risk indicator and comparison with damage records; 3.4.7 Sensitivity analysis of the vulnerability indicator; 3.5 Discussion; 3.5.1 Exposure areas; 3.5.2 Representativeness and relative importance of indicators; 3.5.3 Sensitivity of the vulnerability indicator; 3.5.4 Usefulness of the prioritization indicator; 3.6 Conclusions 4 Spatial interpolation for real-time rainfall field estimation in areas with complex topography; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 Methods and Data; 4.2.1 Study Area; 4.2.2 Precipitation data; 4.2.3 Geostatistical interpolation procedure; 4.2.3.1 Interpolation techniques; 4.2.3.2 Topographic parameters as secondary variables; 4.2.3.3 Cross validation and statistical criteria of comparison; 4.2.3.4 Conditional Simulations; 4.3 Results; 4.3.1 Exploratory data analysis; 4.3.2 Classification of daily datasets; 4.3.3 Variogramanalysis; 4.3.4 Analysis of performance of the interpolators for the individual storms; 4.3.5 Analysis of performance of the interpolators using the climatological variograms and applicability of the climatological variograms for individual event rainfall field generation; 4.3.6 Analysis of secondary variables; 4.3.7 Analysis of uncertainty in estimates of storm volumes; 4.4 Discussion; 4.4.1 Characteristics of the rainfall fields; 4.4.2 Performance of the climatological variograms and applicability to the generation of individual event rainfall fields; 4.4.3 Choice between KED and OK; 4.4.4 Volumetric comparison; 4.5 Conclusions 5 Hydrological model assessment for flood early warning in a tropical high mountain basin 102 5.1 Introduction; 5.2 Study Area; 5.3 Methods; 5.3.1 Modelling set up and calibration; 5.3.1.1 Description of themodels; 5.3.1.2 Hydrometeorological forcing; 5.3.1.3 Model Configuration and Calibration; 5.3.2 Performance analysis and diagnostics; 5.3.3 Analysis of precipitation input uncertainty and comparison of models; 5.4 Results; 5.4.1 Model calibration ; 5.4.1.1 KGE for HECHMSSMA, TOPMODEL and TETIS; 5.4.2 Comparison of water balance fluxes; 5.4.3 Signature measures from the flow duration curve (FDC); 5.4.4 Rainfall ensemble analysis, input precipitation uncertainty; 5.4.5 Comparison ofmodel ensembles; 5.5 Discussion; 5.5.1 Model calibration and performance; 5.5.1.1 Water balance fluxes and hydrometeorological forcing; 5.5.1.2 Pixel size and flux variation for the TOPMODEL and TETIS; 5.5.1.3 HECHMSSMA calibration results and fluxes; 5.5.1.4 Flow duration curve and signatures; 5.5.2 Comparison of discharge ensembles; 5.6 Conclusions 6 Streamflow forecasts fromWRF precipitation for flood early warning in tropical mountain areas ; 6.1 Introduction; 6.2 Methods and data; 6.2.1 Study Area; 6.2.2 WRF model data and observed rainfall fields; 6.2.3 Methodology; 6.2.3.1 Generation of Precipitation Forecasts; 6.2.3.2 Verification of forecasts; 6.3 Results; 6.3.1 Bias correction of precipitation forecasts through DBS; 6.3.2 Quantile regressionmodel; 6.3.3 Verification of precipitation forecasts; 6.3.4 Verification of deterministic precipitation forecasts and ensemble mean; 6.3.5 Verification of deterministic discharge forecasts and ensemble mean; 6.3.6 Verification of probabilistic forecasts; 6.3.7 Discussion; 6.3.7.1 Evaluating precipitation forecasts from the WRF model; 6.3.7.2 Evaluating discharge forecast; 6.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 7 Conclusions and Recommendations; 7.1 Conclusions; 7.1.1 Regional Flood risk analysis; 7.1.2 Hydrometeorological inputs; 7.1.3 Hydrological models for flood early warning; 7.2 Added value of the numerical weather prediction model WRF in the flood forecasting system; 7.3 Recommendations
• Publisher Details: Place of publication not identified : CRC Press
• Publication Date: 2020
• Extent: 1 online resource (200 pages)
• Subjects: 551.489; Flood forecasting
• Languages: English
• ISBNs: 9780429606137; 0429606133
• Access Rights: Legal Deposit; Only available on premises controlled by the deposit library and to one user at any one time; The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK).
• Access Usage: Restricted: Printing from this resource is governed by The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK) and UK copyright law currently in force.