Time predictions : understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life /: understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life. (2018)

• Record Type: Book
• Further Information: Note: Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen.
• Authors: Halkjelsvik, Torleif; Jørgensen, Magne
• Contents: Preface.- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success.- 1.2 Prediction disasters.- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel.- 2.2 How did you make that prediction?.- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere.- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time?.- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right?.- 3.2 Communication of time predictions.- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions.- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions.- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4.- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage.- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance.- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions.- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism.- 4.3 The desire to control time.- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions.- 4.5 Selection bias.- 4.6 Deception.- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions?.- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy.- 5.2 Anchoring.- 5.3 Sequence effects.- 5.4 Format effects.- 5.5 The magnitude effect.- 5.6 Length of task description.- 5.7 The time unit effect.- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident?.- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence?.- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats.- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback.- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition.- 7.2 Analogies.- 7.3 Relative predictions.- 7.4 Time prediction models.- 7.5 Consider alternative futures.- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions.- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction?.- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information.- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales.- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation.- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others.
• Publisher Details: Cham : Springer
• Publication Date: 2018
• Copyright Date: 2018
• Extent: 1 online resource (110 pages)
• Subjects: 658.4/04; Project management; Time management; Management information systems; Economics -- Psychological aspects; Economics -- Psychological aspects; Management information systems; Project management; Time management
• Languages: English
• ISBNs: 9783319749532
• Related ISBNs: 9783319749525
• Access Rights: Legal Deposit; Only available on premises controlled by the deposit library and to one user at any one time; The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK).
• Access Usage: Restricted: Printing from this resource is governed by The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK) and UK copyright law currently in force.