Improving your NCAA bracket with statistics. ([2019])

• Record Type: Book
• Further Information: Note: Tom Adams.
• Authors: Adams, Tom
• Contents: Cover; Half Title; Series Page; Title Page; Copyright Page; Contents; Preface; Acknowledgments; Chapter 1: The Birth of the Pool; 1.1 The Tournament; 1.2 The Bracket Pool Emerges; 1.3 A Natural Experiment in Economics; 1.3.1 Simplify the Problem; 1.3.2 A Team's Chances of Winning; 1.3.3 Are There Favorable Strategies?; 1.3.4 Pooled Betting; 1.3.5 Some Pool Players Already Knew; 1.3.6 What a Competitive Pool Would Look Like; 1.3.7 Are Most Pool Players Irrational?; 1.3.8 Was the Simplified Problem Good Enough?; 1.3.9 Down-Bracket Chalk; 1.4 Obama's Brackets; 1.5 Metrick's Impact Chapter 2: Predicting the Tournament Outcome2.1 An Example of a Tournament Outcome Model; 2.2 Why Use a Probability Model?; 2.3 Estimating Game Outcome Probabilities; 2.4 Converting a Point Spread to a Probability; 2.5 Using Rating-based Spreads; 2.6 Improving the Tournament Outcome Model; 2.7 Precision versus Accuracy; 2.8 Will a 16 Seed Ever Beat a 1 Seed?; 2.9 Judging Models based on the Tournament Outcome; 2.10 Judging a Model-Generating Method; 2.11 Using a Tournament Outcome Model in Bracket Pool Strategy; 2.12 The Team Advancement Table; Chapter 3: Ratings versus Seedings Chapter 4: The Conquest of Pools with Upset Incentives4.1 How Upset Incentives Work; 4.2 The Expected-Point-Maximizing Bracket; 4.3 Monte Carlo Computer Simulations; 4.4 Finding the EPM Bracket; 4.5 Direct Calculation of the EPM Bracket; 4.6 EPM for the Public; 4.7 EPM Results; 4.8 Strengths and Weaknesses of the EPM Bracket; 4.9 Surprising Reactions to Expected-Point Maximizers; Chapter 5: Predicting Your Opponent's Brackets; 5.1 Data Sources for an Opponent Model; 5.2 Advancement Table Bias; 5.3 A Pick Advancement Table Example; 5.4 Some Laws of Probability 5.5 Pick Advancement Table Characteristics5.6 Converting an Advancement Table into an Opponent Model; 5.6.1 The mRchmadness Method; 5.6.1.1 Using the Categorical Distributions; 5.6.1.2 Simulating Categorical Distributions; 5.6.2 Reverse Engineering a Markov Model; 5.7 Summary; Chapter 6: Parametric Whole-Bracket Optimization; 6.1 Inputs to the Strategy; 6.2 The Goal: Maximizing Expected Return; 6.3 Assumptions of the Method; 6.4 The Opponent Score Probability Distribution; 6.5 Your Bracket is the Decision Variable; 6.6 Distinguishing Your Bracket from the Competition 6.7 Estimating the Return of a Candidate Bracket6.8 Searching for the Optimal Bracket; 6.9 The Optimal Bracket for a Pool with a Million Opponents; 6.10 The Normality Assumptions Evaluated; 6.11 Variations in Tournament Outcome Models; 6.12 Sources for the Opponent Model; 6.13 Conclusion; Chapter 7: A Practical Contrarian Strategy; 7.1 Pool Betting Behavior; 7.2 Defining Return on Investment; 7.3 Tournament Outcome Models; 7.4 Estimating ROIs Using Simulations; 7.5 Most Players Make Bad Bets; 7.6 A Similarity Metric; 7.7 Identifying Contrarian Champs; 7.8 Improving Your Bracket
• Publisher Details: Boca Raton, Florida : CRC Press
• Publication Date: 2019
• Copyright Date: 2019
• Extent: 1 online resource
• Subjects: 796.323/63; Basketball -- Statistics; Basketball -- Betting -- Statistical methods; GAMES / Gambling / Sports; SPORTS & RECREATION / Business Aspects; SPORTS & RECREATION / Essays; SPORTS & RECREATION / History; SPORTS & RECREATION / Reference; TRAVEL / Special Interest / Sports; Basketball; MATHEMATICS / Probability & Statistics / General; Statistics; Electronic books
• Languages: English
• ISBNs: 9780429943959; 0429943954; 9780429486760; 0429486766; 9780429943942; 0429943946; 9780429943935; 0429943938
• Related ISBNs: 9781138597785; 1138597783; 9781138597747; 1138597740
• Notes: Note: Includes bibliographical references and index.; Note: Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (EBSCO, viewed January 17, 2019).
• Access Rights: Legal Deposit; Only available on premises controlled by the deposit library and to one user at any one time; The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK).
• Access Usage: Restricted: Printing from this resource is governed by The Legal Deposit Libraries (Non-Print Works) Regulations (UK) and UK copyright law currently in force.