Structural reliability analysis and prediction. (2017)

• Record Type: Book
• Authors: Melchers, R. E (Robert E.), 1945-; Beck, André T
• Contents: Preface xv Preface to the Second Edition xvii Preface to the First Edition xviii Acknowledgements xx 1 Measures of Structural Reliability 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 DeterministicMeasures of Limit State Violation 2 1.2.1 Factor of Safety 2 1.2.2 Load Factor 3 1.2.3 Partial Factor (‘Limit State Design’) 4 1.2.4 A Deficiency in Some SafetyMeasures: Lack of Invariance 5 1.2.5 Invariant SafetyMeasures 8 1.3 A Partial Probabilistic SafetyMeasure of Limit State Violation—The Return Period 8 1.4 Probabilistic Measure of Limit State Violation 12 1.4.1 Introduction 12 1.4.2 The Basic Reliability Problem 14 1.4.3 Special Case: Normal Random Variables 17 1.4.4 Safety Factors and Characteristic Values 19 1.4.5 Numerical Integration of the Convolution Integral 23 1.5 Generalized Reliability Problem 24 1.5.1 Basic Variables 24 1.5.2 Generalized Limit State Equations 25 1.5.3 Generalized Reliability Problem Formulation 26 1.5.4 Conditional Reliability Problems∗ 27 1.6 Conclusion 29 2 Structural Reliability Assessment 31 2.1 Introduction 31 2.2 Uncertainties in Reliability Assessment 33 2.2.1 Identification of Uncertainties 33 2.2.2 Phenomenological Uncertainty 34 2.2.3 Decision Uncertainty 34 2.2.4 Modelling Uncertainty 34 2.2.5 Prediction Uncertainty 35 2.2.6 Physical Uncertainty 36 2.2.7 Statistical Uncertainty 36 2.2.8 Uncertainties Due to Human Factors 37 2.2.8.1 Human Error 37 2.2.8.2 Human Intervention 40 2.2.8.3 Modelling of Human Error and Intervention 43 2.2.8.4 Quality Assurance 44 2.2.8.5 Hazard Management 45 2.3 Integrated Risk Assessment 45 2.3.1 Calculation of the Probability of Failure 45 2.3.2 Analysis and Prediction 47 2.3.3 Comparison to Failure Data 48 2.3.4 Validation—a Philosophical Issue 50 2.3.5 The Tail Sensitivity ‘Problem’ 50 2.4 Criteria for Risk Acceptability 51 2.4.1 Acceptable Risk Criterion 51 2.4.1.1 Risks in Society 51 2.4.1.2 Acceptable or Tolerable Risk Levels 53 2.4.2 Socio-economic Criterion 54 2.5 Nominal Probability of Failure 56 2.5.1 General 56 2.5.2 Axiomatic Definition 56 2.5.3 Influence of Gross and Other Errors 57 2.5.4 Practical Implications 58 2.5.5 Target Values for Nominal Failure Probability 59 2.6 Hierarchy of Structural ReliabilityMeasures 60 2.7 Conclusion 61 3 Integration and Simulation Methods 63 3.1 Introduction 63 3.2 Direct and Numerical Integration 63 3.3 Monte Carlo Simulation 65 3.3.1 Introduction 65 3.3.2 Generation of Uniformly Distributed Random Numbers 65 3.3.3 Generation of Random Variates 66 3.3.4 Direct Sampling (‘Crude’ Monte Carlo) 68 3.3.5 Number of Samples Required 69 3.3.6 Variance Reduction 72 3.3.7 Stratified and Latin Hypercube Sampling 73 3.4 Importance Sampling 73 3.4.1 Theory of Importance Sampling 73 3.4.2 Importance Sampling Functions 75 3.4.3 Observations About Importance Sampling Functions 76 3.4.4 Improved Sampling Functions 79 3.4.5 Search or Adaptive Techniques 80 3.4.6 Sensitivity 81 3.5 Directional Simulation∗ 82 3.5.1 Basic Notions 82 3.5.2 Directional Simulation with Importance Sampling 84 3.5.3 Generalized Directional Simulation 85 3.5.4 Directional Simulation in the Load Space 87 3.5.4.1 Basic Concept 87 3.5.4.2 Variation of Strength with Radial Direction 89 3.5.4.3 Line Sampling 90 3.6 Practical Aspects of Monte Carlo Simulation 90 3.6.1 Conditional Expectation 90 3.6.2 Generalized Limit State Function – Response Surfaces 91 3.6.3 Systematic Selection of Random Variables 92 3.6.4 Applications 92 3.7 Conclusion 93 4 Second-Moment and Transformation Methods 95 4.1 Introduction 95 4.2 Second-Moment Concepts 95 4.3 First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) Theory 97 4.3.1 The Hasofer–Lind Transformation 97 4.3.2 Linear Limit State Function 98 4.3.3 Sensitivity Factors and Gradient Projection 101 4.3.4 Non-Linear Limit State Function—General Case 102 4.3.5 Non-Linear Limit State Function—Numerical Solution 106 4.3.6 Non-Linear Limit State Function—HLRF Algorithm 106 4.3.7 Geometric Interpretation of Iterative Solution Scheme 109 4.3.8 Interpretation of First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) Theory 110 4.3.9 General Limit State Functions—Probability Bounds 112 4.4 The First-Order Reliability (FOR) Method 112 4.4.1 Simple Transformations 112 4.4.2 The Normal Tail Transformation 114 4.4.3 Transformations to Independent Normal Basic Variables 116 4.4.3.1 Rosenblatt Transformation 117 4.4.3.2 Nataf Transformation 118 4.4.4 Algorithm for First-Order Reliability (FOR) Method 121 4.4.5 Observations 124 4.4.6 Asymptotic Formulation 125 4.5 Second-Order Reliability (SOR) Methods 126 4.5.1 Basic Concept 126 4.5.2 EvaluationThrough Sampling 126 4.5.3 EvaluationThrough Asymptotic Approximation 127 4.6 Application of FOSM/FOR/SOR Methods 128 4.7 Mean Value Methods 129 4.8 Conclusion 130 5 Reliability of Structural Systems 131 5.1 Introduction 131 5.2 Systems Reliability Fundamentals 132 5.2.1 Structural System Modelling 132 5.2.1.1 Load Modelling 132 5.2.1.2 MaterialModelling 133 5.2.1.3 System Modelling 135 5.2.2 Solution Approaches 136 5.2.2.1 Failure Mode Approach 136 5.2.2.2 Survival Mode Approach 137 5.2.2.3 Upper and Lower Bounds—Plastic Theory 138 5.2.3 Idealizations of Structural Systems 139 5.2.3.1 Series Systems 139 5.2.3.2 Parallel Systems—General 141 5.2.3.3 Parallel Systems—Ideal Plastic 143 5.2.3.4 Combined and Conditional Systems 146 5.3 Monte Carlo Techniques for Systems 147 5.3.1 General Remarks 147 5.3.2 Importance Sampling 147 5.3.2.1 Series Systems 147 5.3.2.2 Parallel Systems 149 5.3.2.3 Search-Type Approaches in Importance Sampling 150 5.3.2.4 Failure Modes Identification in Importance Sampling 151 5.3.3 Directional Simulation 151 5.3.4 Directional Simulation in the Load Space 151 5.4 System Reliability Bounds 153 5.4.1 First-Order Series Bounds 153 5.4.2 Second-Order Series Bounds 154 5.4.3 Second-Order Series Bounds by Loading Sequences 157 5.4.4 Series Bounds by Modes and Loading Sequences 158 5.4.5 Improved Series Bounds and Parallel System Bounds 158 5.4.6 First-Order Second-Moment Method in Systems Reliability 159 5.4.7 Correlation Effects 164 5.4.8 Bounds by Matrix Operations and Linear Programming* 164 5.5 Implicit Limit States 168 5.5.1 Introduction 168 5.5.2 Response Surfaces 169 5.5.2.1 Basics of Response Surfaces 169 5.5.2.2 Fitting the Response Surface 170 5.5.3 Applications of Response Surfaces 172 5.5.4 Other Techniques for Obtaining Surrogate Limit States 173 5.6 Functionally Dependent Limit States 173 5.6.1 Effect of Order of Loading 173 5.6.2 Failure Mode Enumeration and Reduction 174 5.6.3 Reduction of Number of Limit States—Truncation 175 5.6.4 Applications 176 5.7 Conclusion 177 6 Time-Dependent Reliability 179 6.1 Int
• Edition: Third edition
• Publisher Details: Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Publication Date: 2017
• Extent: 1 online resource
• Subjects: 624.171; Structural stability; Reliability (Engineering)
• Languages: English
• ISBNs: 9781119266068; 9781119266075
• Related ISBNs: 9781119265993
• Notes: Note: Includes bibliographical references and index.; Note: Description based on CIP data; resource not viewed.
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